Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Miejski, Białystok · updated 2026-10-17
Jagiellonia Białystok welcome Anderlecht to Stadion Miejski in Białystok in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Jagiellonia Białystok have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Anderlecht have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Jagiellonia Białystok 37%, the draw 30%, Anderlecht 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok 1.18, Anderlecht 1.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Jagiellonia Białystok: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.58 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.5).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 43.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Anderlecht: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.0).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht: season averages side by side
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Per match this season | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 5.2 | On target | 5.5 |
| 43.7 | Possession % | 47.1 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 2.2 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.61 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.18 for Jagiellonia Białystok and 1.11 for Anderlecht - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 47%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Jagiellonia Białystok 1-1 Anderlecht
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht: questions and answers
When is Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht?
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht played?
At Stadion Miejski, Białystok, Jagiellonia Białystok's home ground.
Who will win Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht?
It is close: Jagiellonia Białystok 37%, draw 30%, Anderlecht 33%. Our prediction is Jagiellonia Białystok 1-1 Anderlecht.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.