Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller · updated 2026-10-17
Lillestrøm welcome Real Sociedad to Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Lillestrøm have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lillestrøm are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 27% and Real Sociedad at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lillestrøm 1.55, Real Sociedad 1.07.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lillestrøm: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.78 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
In style Real Sociedad take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.17 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Lillestrøm | Per match this season | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.17 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 2.8 | On target | 5.0 |
| 55.3 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Real Sociedad
- Sergio Gómez LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Chance creator, Secure passer (top 12% of his position)
- Jon Aramburu RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Carlos Soler
Carlos Soler, 29 · Real Sociedad · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 61
Carlos Soler, 29, plays as a central midfielder for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.03 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.21 / 90 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 66% |
| Long balls | 2.03 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Carlos Soler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Carlos Soler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.55 for Lillestrøm and 1.07 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 53%. Lillestrøm have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lillestrøm 1-0 Real Sociedad
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad betting tips
- Tip 1: Lillestrøm win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad played?
At Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller, Lillestrøm's home ground.
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Lillestrøm are the favourites: Lillestrøm 48%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 25%. Our prediction is Lillestrøm 1-0 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Carlos Soler of Real Sociedad: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.