Millwall vs Derby County Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 13
Championship · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00 UTC · The Den, London · updated 2026-10-25
Millwall welcome Derby County to The Den in London in Championship Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Millwall have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Derby County have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 8% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Millwall are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and Derby County at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Millwall 2.20, Derby County 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Millwall: form and key numbers
In style Millwall press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 48.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Derby County: form and key numbers
In style Derby County play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.97 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Millwall vs Derby County: season averages side by side
| Millwall | Per match this season | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.36 | xG conceded | 1.97 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 3.9 | On target | 3.8 |
| 48.1 | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 8% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Millwall
- Josh Coburn CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 53 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 5% of his position)
- Caleb Taylor CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 41 · Reads the game, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
Derby County
- Jacob Widell Zetterström GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 44 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 33% of his position)
- David Ozoh DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 35 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Joe Ward
Joe Ward, 31 · Derby County · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 47
Joe Ward, 31, plays as a wide midfielder for Derby County in the Championship. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 47
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 47
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.02 / 90 | 93% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.28 / 90 | 71% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 43% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Reads the game.
- What Joe Ward is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Millwall vs Derby County prediction
Derby County should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.20 for Millwall and 1.03 for Derby County - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 58%. Millwall have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Millwall 2-1 Derby County
Millwall vs Derby County betting tips
- Tip 1: Millwall to win 64% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.23 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Millwall vs Derby County: questions and answers
When is Millwall vs Derby County?
Millwall vs Derby County is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 13.
Where is Millwall vs Derby County played?
At The Den, London, Millwall's home ground.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby County?
Millwall are the favourites: Millwall 64%, draw 21%, Derby County 16%. Our prediction is Millwall 2-1 Derby County.
Who is the player to watch in Millwall vs Derby County?
Joe Ward of Derby County: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Derby County?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.