Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Europa Point Stadium, Freiburg · updated 2026-10-09
Lincoln Red Imps host FC Twente in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Europa Point Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes FC Twente favourites at 50%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps 1.24, FC Twente 1.79.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Lincoln Red Imps | Per match this season | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 3.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 2.20 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 23.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 9.0 |
| 36.8 | Possession % | 61.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 8.3 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.38 | Average rating | 7.09 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Lincoln Red Imps in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.