Málaga vs Racing Santander Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 12
La Liga · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga · updated 2026-10-24
Málaga welcome Racing Santander to Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga in La Liga Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Málaga have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Racing Santander have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 3.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Málaga 42%, the draw 25%, Racing Santander 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Málaga 1.66, Racing Santander 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Málaga: form and key numbers
In style Málaga take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.87 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Racing Santander: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 2.34 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Málaga vs Racing Santander: season averages side by side
| Málaga | Per match this season | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 9 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 2.8 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| 1.87 | xG conceded | 2.34 |
| 10.9 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.0 | On target | 4.4 |
| 50.9 | Possession % | 49.6 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Málaga
- Adrián Niño Heredia CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 59 · Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter (top 10% of his position)
- Alfonso Herrero GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 52 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 27% of his position)
Racing Santander
- Andrés Martín RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 60 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 2% of his position)
- Pablo Ramón CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Pablo Martínez
Pablo Martínez, 28 · Málaga · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 61
Pablo Martínez, 28, plays as a central midfielder for Málaga in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.20 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 92% |
| Dispossessed | 0.38 / 90 | 84% |
| Long balls | 3.01 / 90 | 82% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.75 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Pablo Martínez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Pablo Martínez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Málaga vs Racing Santander prediction
Málaga should have more of the ball; Málaga like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.66 for Málaga and 1.47 for Racing Santander - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 63%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Málaga 1-1 Racing Santander
Málaga vs Racing Santander betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.13 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Real Sociedad vs Levante Sunday 25 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sevilla vs Osasuna Monday 26 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Espanyol Friday 30 October 2026
- Levante vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 31 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 31 October 2026
Málaga vs Racing Santander: questions and answers
When is Málaga vs Racing Santander?
Málaga vs Racing Santander is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 12.
Where is Málaga vs Racing Santander played?
At Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga, Málaga's home ground.
Who will win Málaga vs Racing Santander?
It is close: Málaga 42%, draw 25%, Racing Santander 33%. Our prediction is Málaga 1-1 Racing Santander.
Who is the player to watch in Málaga vs Racing Santander?
Pablo Martínez of Málaga: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Málaga vs Racing Santander?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.