Monaco vs SC Freiburg: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-10-09
Monaco host SC Freiburg in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stade Louis II.. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes SC Freiburg slight favourites at 45%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.8 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.24, SC Freiburg 1.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Igor Matanovic as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 66, defensive 73).
- Duels won: 9.17 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-forwards
- Aerial duels won: 4.17 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 4.17 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of centre-forwards
Monaco concede only 0.6 goals a match this season (1.48 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a target man like Igor Matanovic.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Monaco | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.23 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 0.99 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 4.6 | On target | 6.5 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 53.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 7.07 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Monaco in its domestic league; SC Freiburg in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Monaco
- Lamine Camara midfielder · rating 7.41 · 5 apps
- Eric Dier defender · rating 7.32 · 5 apps
- Nazinho defender · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic forward · rating 7.91 · 4 apps
- Matthias Ginter defender · rating 7.70 · 4 apps
- Yuito Suzuki midfielder · rating 7.48 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.