Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Right to Dream Park, Farum · updated 2026-10-09
Nordsjælland host CSKA Sofia in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Right to Dream Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Nordsjælland clear favourites at 79%, puts the draw at 15% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nordsjælland 2.40, CSKA Sofia 0.51.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 37%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (16%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Nordsjælland | Per match this season | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.42 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.22 |
| 19.3 | Shots | 11.5 |
| 6.7 | On target | 4.1 |
| 60.0 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 17% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 3.3 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.41 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; CSKA Sofia in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.