OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Pankritio Stadio, Heraklion · updated 2026-10-17
OFI welcome Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Pankritio Stadio in Heraklion in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
OFI have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, OFI are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: OFI 1.55, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
OFI: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.70 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.2).
- Shots: 8.3 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.40 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| OFI | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 0.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.40 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 8.3 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 3.8 | On target | 6.4 |
| 38.5 | Possession % | 59.6 |
| 75% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 77 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 65 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.71 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.84 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.57 / 90 | 76% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.55 for OFI and 1.27 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 57%. OFI have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: OFI 2-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: OFI win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played?
At Pankritio Stadio, Heraklion, OFI's home ground.
Who will win OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
OFI are the favourites: OFI 43%, draw 26%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 31%. Our prediction is OFI 2-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.