Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus · updated 2026-10-17
Olympiacos F.C. welcome Sparta Praha to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Olympiacos F.C. have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Sparta Praha have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympiacos F.C. are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 29% and Sparta Praha at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympiacos F.C. 1.38, Sparta Praha 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Olympiacos F.C.: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Sparta Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha: season averages side by side
| Olympiacos F.C. | Per match this season | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 2 |
| 0.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 10.5 | Shots | 7.5 |
| 3.5 | On target | 2.0 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.59 |
Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.38 for Olympiacos F.C. and 0.97 for Sparta Praha - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 47%. Olympiacos F.C. have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Olympiacos F.C. 1-0 Sparta Praha
Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha betting tips
- Tip 1: Olympiacos F.C. win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.36 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha: questions and answers
When is Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha?
Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha played?
At Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus, Olympiacos F.C.'s home ground.
Who will win Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha?
Olympiacos F.C. are the favourites: Olympiacos F.C. 46%, draw 29%, Sparta Praha 26%. Our prediction is Olympiacos F.C. 1-0 Sparta Praha.
How many goals will there be in Olympiacos F.C. vs Sparta Praha?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.