Pafos FC vs Riga: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos · updated 2026-10-09
Pafos FC host Riga in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Riga slight favourites at 39%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 29% and expects about 2.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Pafos FC 1.15, Riga 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Pafos FC | Per match this season | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.62 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 19.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 8.2 |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 57.7 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.61 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Pafos FC in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.