Portsmouth vs Stoke City Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 15
Championship · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Fratton Park, Portsmouth · updated 2026-10-25
Portsmouth welcome Stoke City to Fratton Park in Portsmouth in Championship Gameweek 15 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Portsmouth have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 60% win rate. Stoke City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Portsmouth are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.53, Stoke City 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Portsmouth: form and key numbers
In style Portsmouth keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.40 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Stoke City: form and key numbers
In style Stoke City are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.3).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: season averages side by side
| Portsmouth | Per match this season | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 14.6 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.5 |
| 52.4 | Possession % | 45.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Portsmouth
- Adrian Segečić RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
- Regan Poole CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 38 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
Stoke City
- Sorba Thomas LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Luca Bombino LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 40 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marko Milovanović
Marko Milovanović, 23 · Portsmouth · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 43
Marko Milovanović, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Portsmouth in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 43
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 39
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.34 xG/shot | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.94 / 90 | 85% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.36 / 90 | 52% |
| Shots on target | 43% | 52% |
| Duels won | 5.11 / 90 | 29% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Marko Milovanović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marko Milovanović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction
Portsmouth should have more of the ball, with Stoke City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.53 for Portsmouth and 1.04 for Stoke City - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 51%. Portsmouth have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Portsmouth 2-1 Stoke City
Portsmouth vs Stoke City betting tips
- Tip 1: Portsmouth win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.57 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Championship previews
- Sheffield United vs Wrexham Friday 30 October 2026
- Stoke City vs Preston North End Saturday 31 October 2026
- Norwich City vs Watford Saturday 31 October 2026
- Lincoln City vs Birmingham City Saturday 31 October 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City Saturday 31 October 2026
- West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 31 October 2026
- Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers Saturday 31 October 2026
- Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 31 October 2026
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: questions and answers
When is Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Portsmouth vs Stoke City is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 15.
Where is Portsmouth vs Stoke City played?
At Fratton Park, Portsmouth, Portsmouth's home ground.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Portsmouth are the favourites: Portsmouth 48%, draw 27%, Stoke City 25%. Our prediction is Portsmouth 2-1 Stoke City.
Who is the player to watch in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Marko Milovanović of Portsmouth: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.