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Riga vs Kairat: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadions Skonto, Riga · updated 2026-10-09

Riga host Kairat in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Stadions Skonto. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Riga slight favourites at 43%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 35% and expects about 1.7 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Riga43%fair odds 2.34
Draw35%fair odds 2.86
Kairat22%fair odds 4.48

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

RigaPer match this seasonKairat
6Matches6
2.0Goals scored0.8
1.0Goals conceded0.7
0.62Expected goals (xG)0.22
19.5Shots14.0
8.2On target5.2
57.7Possession %55.7
33%Clean sheets %33%
67%Both teams scored %17%
7.7Corners7.0
2.5Yellow cards1.8
6.61Average rating6.52

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Kairat in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.