SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Bundesliga · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · updated 2026-10-25
SC Freiburg welcome FC Union Berlin to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Bundesliga Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
SC Freiburg have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 3.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. FC Union Berlin have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16% and FC Union Berlin at 10%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.60, FC Union Berlin 0.89.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.6).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
FC Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style FC Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match this season | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.6 |
| 1.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.27 |
| 0.99 | xG conceded | 1.95 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 5.3 | On target | 3.9 |
| 52.5 | Possession % | 42.6 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Jordy Makengo LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Hard to dribble past (top 13% of his position)
FC Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Tim Skarke CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 65 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Accurate shooter (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 66
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.83 / 90 | 97% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.95 / 90 | 90% |
| Shots | 3.76 / 90 | 82% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 69% |
| Goals | 0.56 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with FC Union Berlin likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.60 for SC Freiburg and 0.89 for FC Union Berlin - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 55%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Union Berlin
SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin betting tips
- Tip 1: SC Freiburg to win 74% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.49 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
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- Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Saturday 31 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 31 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 31 October 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 31 October 2026
SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 9.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: SC Freiburg 74%, draw 16%, FC Union Berlin 10%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Union Berlin.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs FC Union Berlin?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.