Thun vs Hajduk Split: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stockhorn Arena, Thun · updated 2026-10-09
Thun host Hajduk Split in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Stockhorn Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Hajduk Split favourites at 55%, puts the draw at 20% and expects about 4.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Thun 1.62, Hajduk Split 2.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 77% · both teams to score: 73%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Thun | Per match this season | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 3.5 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.36 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.3 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 51.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.53 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Thun in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.