Watford vs Lincoln City Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 14
Championship · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Vicarage Road, Watford · updated 2026-10-25
Watford welcome Lincoln City to Vicarage Road in Watford in Championship Gameweek 14 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Watford have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lincoln City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Watford 34%, the draw 27%, Lincoln City 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Watford 1.31, Lincoln City 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Watford: form and key numbers
In style Watford are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Lincoln City: form and key numbers
In style Lincoln City are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.8).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 35.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Watford vs Lincoln City: season averages side by side
| Watford | Per match this season | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.89 | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.1 | On target | 3.1 |
| 45.8 | Possession % | 35.7 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Watford
- Federico Ravaglia GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 4% of his position)
- Mattie Pollock CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 31 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 8% of his position)
Lincoln City
- Callum Elder LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 42 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 19% of his position)
- Yunus Konak DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 33 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jordan Zemura
Jordan Zemura, 26 · Watford · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 37
Jordan Zemura, 26, plays as a wing-back for Watford in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and key passes. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 37
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 37
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.63 / 90 | 74% |
| Key passes | 1.93 / 90 | 53% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.04 / 90 | 44% |
| Tackles | 2.23 / 90 | 40% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.04 / 90 | 38% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- What Jordan Zemura is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jordan Zemura's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Watford vs Lincoln City prediction
Watford should have more of the ball; Watford like to take players on; Lincoln City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.31 for Watford and 1.41 for Lincoln City - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Watford 1-1 Lincoln City
Watford vs Lincoln City betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Championship previews
- Sheffield United vs Wrexham Friday 30 October 2026
- Stoke City vs Preston North End Saturday 31 October 2026
- Norwich City vs Watford Saturday 31 October 2026
- Lincoln City vs Birmingham City Saturday 31 October 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City Saturday 31 October 2026
- West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 31 October 2026
- Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers Saturday 31 October 2026
- Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 31 October 2026
Watford vs Lincoln City: questions and answers
When is Watford vs Lincoln City?
Watford vs Lincoln City is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 14.
Where is Watford vs Lincoln City played?
At Vicarage Road, Watford, Watford's home ground.
Who will win Watford vs Lincoln City?
It is close: Watford 34%, draw 27%, Lincoln City 39%. Our prediction is Watford 1-1 Lincoln City.
Who is the player to watch in Watford vs Lincoln City?
Jordan Zemura of Watford: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 37 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Watford vs Lincoln City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.