Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 12
Eredivisie · Friday 6 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg · updated 2026-10-25
Willem II welcome PEC Zwolle to Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg in Eredivisie Gameweek 12 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Willem II have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 3.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. PEC Zwolle have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Willem II 40%, the draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Willem II 1.69, PEC Zwolle 1.59.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Willem II: form and key numbers
In style Willem II are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 2.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 41.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
PEC Zwolle: form and key numbers
In style PEC Zwolle are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.15 a match created, 2.18 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 40.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: season averages side by side
| Willem II | Per match this season | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 3.2 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.15 |
| 2.20 | xG conceded | 2.18 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 2.7 | On target | 4.4 |
| 41.5 | Possession % | 40.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.58 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Willem II
- Nathan Tjoe-A-On LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Finn Stam CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 30 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 39% of his position)
PEC Zwolle
- Damian van der Haar LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 33 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 19% of his position)
- Simon Graves CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 32 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas, 31 · PEC Zwolle · DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 42
Ryan Thomas, 31, plays as a defensive midfielder for PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in blocked shots and interceptions. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Blocked shots | 1.04 / 90 | 91% |
| Interceptions | 2.85 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 7.52 / 90 | 83% |
| Tackles | 2.98 / 90 | 64% |
| Dispossessed | 0.39 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Blocks shots, Reads the game, Duel winner.
- What Ryan Thomas is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ryan Thomas's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle prediction
Willem II should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.69 for Willem II and 1.59 for PEC Zwolle - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Willem II 1-1 PEC Zwolle
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: questions and answers
When is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 12.
Where is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle played?
At Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg, Willem II's home ground.
Who will win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
It is close: Willem II 40%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 36%. Our prediction is Willem II 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who is the player to watch in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Ryan Thomas of PEC Zwolle: a anchor with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.