Abha vs Al Ittihad Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12
Saudi Pro League · Friday 30 October 2026 · 13:45 UTC · Dhamak Club Stadium, Khamis Mushait · updated 2026-10-25
Abha welcome Al Ittihad to Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 13:45 UTC.
Abha have played 9 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Al Ittihad have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 70% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Ittihad are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 23% and Abha at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Abha 0.98, Al Ittihad 1.89.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Abha: form and key numbers
In style Abha are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 9.0 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Al Ittihad: form and key numbers
In style Al Ittihad take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.10 a match created, 1.46 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Abha vs Al Ittihad: season averages side by side
| Abha | Per match this season | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.10 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.46 |
| 9.0 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 2.9 | On target | 5.4 |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 70% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Abha
- Safwan Al-Johani LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 20 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 25% of his position)
- Nasser Al-Daajani CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 18 · Dribbler, Long passer (top 26% of his position)
Al Ittihad
- Predrag Rajković GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 31 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
- George Ilenikhena CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 21 · Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter (top 28% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Youssef En-Nesyri
Youssef En-Nesyri, 29 · Al Ittihad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 22
Youssef En-Nesyri, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Al Ittihad in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 22
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 77% |
| Goals | 0.91 / 90 | 62% |
| Shots on target | 42% | 48% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 39% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.97 / 90 | 16% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- What Youssef En-Nesyri is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Youssef En-Nesyri's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Abha vs Al Ittihad prediction
Al Ittihad should have more of the ball, with Abha likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 0.98 for Abha and 1.89 for Al Ittihad - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 54%. Al Ittihad have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Abha 1-2 Al Ittihad
Abha vs Al Ittihad betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Ittihad to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
- Al-Fayha vs Al Faisaly Saturday 31 October 2026
Abha vs Al Ittihad: questions and answers
When is Abha vs Al Ittihad?
Abha vs Al Ittihad is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 13:45 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Abha vs Al Ittihad played?
At Dhamak Club Stadium, Khamis Mushait, Abha's home ground.
Who will win Abha vs Al Ittihad?
Al Ittihad are the favourites: Abha 19%, draw 23%, Al Ittihad 58%. Our prediction is Abha 1-2 Al Ittihad.
Who is the player to watch in Abha vs Al Ittihad?
Youssef En-Nesyri of Al Ittihad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 22 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Abha vs Al Ittihad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.