Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12
Saudi Pro League · Friday 30 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh), Riyadh · updated 2026-10-25
Al Shabab welcome Al Ahli to Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh) in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Al Shabab have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Al Ahli have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 70% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Ahli are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 22% and Al Shabab at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.51, Al Ahli 2.06.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Al Shabab: form and key numbers
In style Al Shabab press high, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Al Ahli: form and key numbers
In style Al Ahli keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.39 a match created, 1.26 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 6.8 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli: season averages side by side
| Al Shabab | Per match this season | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.39 |
| 1.57 | xG conceded | 1.26 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 5.2 | On target | 6.8 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 53.5 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Al Shabab
- Ricardo Mathias CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 25 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 2% of his position)
- Josh Brownhill CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 25 · Secure passer, Creator (top 29% of his position)
Al Ahli
- Eduard Spertsyan AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 21 · Secure passer, Big-chance creator (top 15% of his position)
- Francisco Trincão RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 19 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ivan Toney
Ivan Toney, 30 · Al Ahli · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 35
Ivan Toney, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Al Ahli in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 35
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.29 xG/shot | 100% |
| Shots on target | 64% | 98% |
| Expected goals | 1.21 / 90 | 89% |
| Goals | 0.93 / 90 | 63% |
| Shots | 4.19 / 90 | 22% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ivan Toney is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ivan Toney's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli prediction
Al Ahli should have more of the ball; Al Shabab like to take players on; Al Ahli work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.51 for Al Shabab and 2.06 for Al Ahli - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 68%. Al Ahli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Al Shabab 1-3 Al Ahli
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Ahli win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.57 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
- Al-Fayha vs Al Faisaly Saturday 31 October 2026
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli: questions and answers
When is Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Ahli played?
At Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh), Riyadh, Al Shabab's home ground.
Who will win Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Al Ahli are the favourites: Al Shabab 28%, draw 22%, Al Ahli 50%. Our prediction is Al Shabab 1-3 Al Ahli.
Who is the player to watch in Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Ivan Toney of Al Ahli: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 35 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.