Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh · updated 2026-10-25
Al Riyadh welcome Al-Qadsiah to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Al Riyadh have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Al-Qadsiah have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 73% of them. Away from home they average 2.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 63% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al-Qadsiah are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and Al Riyadh at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.08, Al-Qadsiah 2.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Al Riyadh: form and key numbers
In style Al Riyadh are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.95 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 41.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Al-Qadsiah: form and key numbers
In style Al-Qadsiah keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.16 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 58.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah: season averages side by side
| Al Riyadh | Per match this season | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 2.4 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | 1.24 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 3.1 | On target | 6.3 |
| 41.8 | Possession % | 58.8 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 55% |
| 3.9 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Players to watch
Al Riyadh
- Kader Keita DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 15 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 12% of his position)
- Victor Lekhal DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 13 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 51% of his position)
Al-Qadsiah
- Koen Casteels GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 24 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 10% of his position)
- Tijjani Reijnders CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 22 · Gets into scoring positions, Secure passer (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Musab Al-Juwayr
Musab Al-Juwayr, 23 · Al-Qadsiah · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 25
Musab Al-Juwayr, 23, plays as a central midfielder for Al-Qadsiah in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 25
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 18
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 82% |
| Key passes | 2.61 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected goals | 0.25 / 90 | 73% |
| Long balls | 3.80 / 90 | 70% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.87 / 90 | 42% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ½ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator.
- What Musab Al-Juwayr is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Musab Al-Juwayr's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah prediction
Al-Qadsiah should have more of the ball, with Al Riyadh likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Al Riyadh go long and direct; Al-Qadsiah press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.08 for Al Riyadh and 2.13 for Al-Qadsiah - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 59%. Al-Qadsiah have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Al Riyadh 1-2 Al-Qadsiah
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah betting tips
- Tip 1: Al-Qadsiah to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.21 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
- Al-Fayha vs Al Faisaly Saturday 31 October 2026
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah: questions and answers
When is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah played?
At Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh, Al Riyadh's home ground.
Who will win Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah?
Al-Qadsiah are the favourites: Al Riyadh 18%, draw 21%, Al-Qadsiah 61%. Our prediction is Al Riyadh 1-2 Al-Qadsiah.
Who is the player to watch in Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah?
Musab Al-Juwayr of Al-Qadsiah: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 25 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.