Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh · updated 2026-10-25
Al Nassr welcome Al Kholood to Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Al Nassr have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 63% win rate. Al Kholood have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Nassr are clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 17% and Al Kholood at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Nassr 2.54, Al Kholood 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Al Nassr: form and key numbers
In style Al Nassr keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 0.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.6).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Al Kholood: form and key numbers
In style Al Kholood play long and direct, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.92 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.2).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood: season averages side by side
| Al Nassr | Per match this season | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 |
| 0.75 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 6.2 | On target | 4.3 |
| 55.6 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 70% |
| 7.7 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Al Nassr
- Ângelo RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 19 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 28% of his position)
- Samú Costa DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 18 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
Al Kholood
- John Buckley CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 26 · Chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
- Coba da Costa LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 21 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 29% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Félix
João Félix, 26 · Al Nassr · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 40
João Félix, 26, plays as a second striker for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in assists and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 40
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 36
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Assists | 0.47 / 90 | 84% |
| Key passes | 3.28 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 72% |
| Shots | 3.98 / 90 | 66% |
| Fouls won | 2.23 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Provider.
- What João Félix is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Félix's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood prediction
Al Nassr should have more of the ball, with Al Kholood likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.54 for Al Nassr and 0.97 for Al Kholood - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 58%. Al Nassr have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Nassr 3-1 Al Kholood
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Nassr to win 71% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.50 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
- Al-Fayha vs Al Faisaly Saturday 31 October 2026
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood: questions and answers
When is Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Al Nassr vs Al Kholood played?
At Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh, Al Nassr's home ground.
Who will win Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
Al Nassr are the favourites: Al Nassr 71%, draw 17%, Al Kholood 12%. Our prediction is Al Nassr 3-1 Al Kholood.
Who is the player to watch in Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
João Félix of Al Nassr: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 40 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.