Abha vs Al Shabab Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Dhamak Club Stadium, Khamis Mushait · updated 2026-10-25
Abha welcome Al Shabab to Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Abha have played 9 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Al Shabab have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Shabab are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 27% and Abha at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Abha 1.12, Al Shabab 1.51.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Abha: form and key numbers
In style Abha are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 9.0 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Al Shabab: form and key numbers
In style Al Shabab press high, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Abha vs Al Shabab: season averages side by side
| Abha | Per match this season | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 9.0 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 2.9 | On target | 5.2 |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Abha
- Safwan Al-Johani LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 20 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 25% of his position)
- Nasser Al-Daajani CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 18 · Dribbler, Long passer (top 26% of his position)
Al Shabab
- Ricardo Mathias CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 25 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 2% of his position)
- Mory Diaw GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 25 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 40% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Josh Brownhill
Josh Brownhill, 30 · Al Shabab · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 25
Josh Brownhill, 30, plays as a central midfielder for Al Shabab in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and expected assists (est.). Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 25
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 21
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 21
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 71% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.28 / 90 | 71% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 65% |
| Expected goals | 0.17 / 90 | 53% |
| Key passes | 1.80 / 90 | 44% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- What Josh Brownhill is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Josh Brownhill's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Abha vs Al Shabab prediction
Al Shabab should have more of the ball; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.12 for Abha and 1.51 for Al Shabab - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 53%. Al Shabab have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Abha 1-2 Al Shabab
Abha vs Al Shabab betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Shabab win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
Abha vs Al Shabab: questions and answers
When is Abha vs Al Shabab?
Abha vs Al Shabab is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13.
Where is Abha vs Al Shabab played?
At Dhamak Club Stadium, Khamis Mushait, Abha's home ground.
Who will win Abha vs Al Shabab?
Al Shabab are the favourites: Abha 27%, draw 27%, Al Shabab 46%. Our prediction is Abha 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who is the player to watch in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Josh Brownhill of Al Shabab: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 25 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.