AC Milan vs Atalanta: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-09
AC Milan host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes AC Milan clear favourites at 61%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 2.8 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AC Milan 1.92, Atalanta 0.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze, 27 · AC Milan · RWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Samuel Chukwueze as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 55, defensive 73).
- Big chances created: 0.93 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.23 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.41 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of wingers
Atalanta concede 1.4 goals a match this season (1.82 expected), more than the league's average: the space a creative winger like Samuel Chukwueze lives on.
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Press-resistant, Creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| AC Milan | Per match this season | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.93 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | 1.82 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 4.2 | On target | 3.4 |
| 60.6 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Samuel Chukwueze midfielder · rating 7.40 · 5 apps
- Strahinja Pavlović defender · rating 7.17 · 5 apps
- Adrien Rabiot midfielder · rating 7.14 · 5 apps
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi goalkeeper · rating 7.36 · 5 apps
- Lazar Samardžić midfielder · rating 6.97 · 5 apps
- Charles De Ketelaere forward · rating 6.88 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.