Roma vs Genoa: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-10-09
Roma host Genoa in Serie A on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Roma clear favourites at 75%, puts the draw at 16% and expects about 3.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Roma 2.51, Genoa 0.75.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Donyell Malen as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 81, defensive 46).
- Expected goals: 1.26 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 1.57 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 5.22 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-forwards
Genoa concede 2.0 goals a match this season (1.27 expected), more than the league's average: the space a poacher like Donyell Malen lives on.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Roma | Per match this season | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| 20.6 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 7.0 | On target | 3.0 |
| 57.6 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 7.16 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Roma
- Paulo Dybala forward · rating 8.00 · 5 apps
- Donyell Malen forward · rating 7.82 · 5 apps
- Matías Soulé forward · rating 7.51 · 5 apps
Genoa
- Junior Messias forward · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Leo Østigård defender · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
- Morten Frendrup midfielder · rating 7.03 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.