Bologna vs Inter: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna · updated 2026-10-09
Bologna host Inter in Serie A on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Inter favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bologna 1.28, Inter 1.73.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez, 29 · Inter · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Lautaro Martínez as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 82, defensive 74).
- Shots: 6.11 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 1.23 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 1.11 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-forwards
Bologna concede only 1.2 goals a match this season (0.89 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a poacher like Lautaro Martínez.
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Bologna | Per match this season | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.80 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 1.24 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 23.2 |
| 3.2 | On target | 7.4 |
| 52.2 | Possession % | 63.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Bologna
- Lewis Ferguson midfielder · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
- Federico Bernardeschi forward · rating 7.16 · 5 apps
- Juan Miranda midfielder · rating 7.07 · 4 apps
Inter
- Lautaro Martínez forward · rating 7.63 · 4 apps
- Nicolò Barella midfielder · rating 7.53 · 5 apps
- Pio Esposito forward · rating 7.29 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.