Frosinone vs Sassuolo: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Friday 16 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone · updated 2026-10-09
Frosinone host Sassuolo in Serie A on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Frosinone favourites at 46%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Frosinone 1.87, Sassuolo 1.49.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté, 27 · Sassuolo · LWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Armand Laurienté as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 63, defensive 37).
- Shots: 3.80 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of wingers
- Expected goals: 0.35 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of wingers
- Big chances created: 0.60 per 90 minutes, better than 80% of wingers
Frosinone concede 0.8 goals a match this season (2.07 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a inside forward like Armand Laurienté.
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Frosinone | Per match this season | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.81 |
| 2.07 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 16.8 | Shots | 17.2 |
| 5.6 | On target | 7.0 |
| 41.4 | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Frosinone
- Giacomo Calò midfielder · rating 7.82 · 5 apps
- Giorgi Kvernadze midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Lorenzo Palmisani goalkeeper · rating 7.27 · 5 apps
Sassuolo
- Cristian Volpato forward · rating 7.31 · 3 apps
- Darryl Bakola midfielder · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Nemanja Matić midfielder · rating 7.17 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.