Venezia vs Napoli: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia · updated 2026-10-09
Venezia host Napoli in Serie A on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Napoli favourites at 46%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Venezia 1.41, Napoli 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: John Yeboah
John Yeboah, 26 · Venezia · SS · Shadow striker
Moneyball Scout picks John Yeboah as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 41).
- Expected goals: 0.51 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of second strikers
- Shots: 3.31 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of second strikers
- Successful dribbles: 1.65 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of second strikers
Napoli concede 1.2 goals a match this season (1.59 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a shadow striker like John Yeboah.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Venezia | Per match this season | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.6 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 2.15 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 4.4 | On target | 4.2 |
| 57.2 | Possession % | 49.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 3.2 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.63 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Venezia
- Gianluca Busio midfielder · rating 7.07 · 4 apps
- Antoine Hainaut midfielder · rating 6.98 · 5 apps
- John Yeboah forward · rating 6.92 · 5 apps
Napoli
- Kevin De Bruyne midfielder · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Stanislav Lobotka midfielder · rating 7.13 · 5 apps
- Amir Rrahmani defender · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.