Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly Prediction and Stats | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14
Saudi Pro League · Friday 20 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Alinma Stadium, Jeddah · updated 2026-11-10
Al Ahli welcome Al Faisaly to Alinma Stadium in Jeddah in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Al Ahli have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 64% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 57% win rate. Al Faisaly have played 12 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Ahli are clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 16% and Al Faisaly at 12%.
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Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Ahli 2.77, Al Faisaly 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 75% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Al Ahli: form and key numbers
In style Al Ahli press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.4).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Al Faisaly: form and key numbers
In style Al Faisaly play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.0).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly: season averages side by side
| Al Ahli | Per match this season | Al Faisaly |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 12 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.09 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 9.5 |
| 6.5 | On target | 3.3 |
| 52.1 | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 2.7 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Al Ahli
- Eduard Spertsyan AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 17 · Secure passer, Big-chance creator (top 19% of his position)
- Saad Balobaid LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 16 · Creator, Secure passer (top 22% of his position)
Al Faisaly
- Flávio CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 14 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 20% of his position)
- Andrei Girotto CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 13 · Ball-winner, Blocks shots (top 43% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ivan Toney
Ivan Toney, 30 · Al Ahli · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 33
Ivan Toney, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Al Ahli in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 33
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.29 xG/shot | 100% |
| Shots on target | 61% | 96% |
| Expected goals | 1.21 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 1.28 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots | 4.19 / 90 | 14% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ivan Toney is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ivan Toney's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly prediction
Al Ahli should have more of the ball; Al Ahli work the ball wide and cross; Al Faisaly go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 2.77 for Al Ahli and 1.12 for Al Faisaly - with over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 64%. Al Ahli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Ahli 3-1 Al Faisaly
Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Ahli win, the likeliest result 71% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 55% by the model, 3.89 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 6.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly: questions and answers
When is Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14.
Where is Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly played?
At Alinma Stadium, Jeddah, Al Ahli's home ground.
Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Al Ahli are the favourites: Al Ahli 71%, draw 16%, Al Faisaly 12%. Our prediction is Al Ahli 3-1 Al Faisaly.
Who is the player to watch in Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Ivan Toney of Al Ahli: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 33 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.