Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah Prediction and Stats | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14
Saudi Pro League · Friday 20 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh · updated 2026-11-10
Al Nassr welcome Al-Qadsiah to Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Al Nassr have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 82% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. Al-Qadsiah have played 12 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 3.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Nassr are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 24% and Al-Qadsiah at 31%.
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Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Nassr 1.80, Al-Qadsiah 1.46.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Al Nassr: form and key numbers
In style Al Nassr keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 0.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Al-Qadsiah: form and key numbers
In style Al-Qadsiah keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.35 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 58.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.03.
Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah: season averages side by side
| Al Nassr | Per match this season | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 12 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.35 |
| 0.85 | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 15.8 |
| 6.4 | On target | 6.9 |
| 55.5 | Possession % | 58.5 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 7.5 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 7.03 |
Players to watch
Al Nassr
- Cristiano Ronaldo CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 20 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 27% of his position)
- Samú Costa DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 14 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Al-Qadsiah
- Koen Casteels GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 24 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
- Musab Al-Juwayr CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 22 · Creator, Chance creator (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Félix
João Félix, 27 · Al Nassr · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 34
João Félix, 27, plays as a second striker for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in assists, luck taken out and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 34
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 32
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 29
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Assists, luck taken out | 0.63 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.57 / 90 | 85% |
| Key passes | 3.46 / 90 | 79% |
| Fouls won | 1.99 / 90 | 50% |
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 44% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Sets up goals from real chances, Creator.
- What João Félix is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Félix's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah prediction
Al-Qadsiah should have more of the ball; Al Nassr work the ball wide and cross; Al-Qadsiah press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.80 for Al Nassr and 1.46 for Al-Qadsiah - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Al Nassr have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Nassr 2-1 Al-Qadsiah
Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Nassr unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 14.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah: questions and answers
When is Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah?
Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14.
Where is Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah played?
At Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh, Al Nassr's home ground.
Who will win Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah?
Al Nassr are the favourites: Al Nassr 45%, draw 24%, Al-Qadsiah 31%. Our prediction is Al Nassr 2-1 Al-Qadsiah.
Who is the player to watch in Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah?
João Félix of Al Nassr: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 34 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.