Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq Prediction and Stats | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14
Saudi Pro League · Friday 20 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh), Riyadh · updated 2026-11-10
Al Shabab welcome Al Ettifaq to Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh) in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Al Shabab have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 67% win rate. Al Ettifaq have played 12 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 80% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Shabab are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 24% and Al Ettifaq at 25%.
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Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.87, Al Ettifaq 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Al Shabab: form and key numbers
In style Al Shabab press high, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Al Ettifaq: form and key numbers
In style Al Ettifaq keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 54.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (80% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq: season averages side by side
| Al Shabab | Per match this season | Al Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 14.6 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 5.4 | On target | 5.3 |
| 51.1 | Possession % | 54.3 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Al Shabab
- Mory Diaw GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 21 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 34% of his position)
- Josh Brownhill CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 19 · Secure passer, Creator (top 32% of his position)
Al Ettifaq
- Turki Ba Al-Jawsh GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 22 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 19% of his position)
- Álvaro Medrán CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 18 · Creator, Chance creator (top 27% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ricardo Mathias
Ricardo Mathias, 20 · Al Shabab · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 21
Ricardo Mathias, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Al Shabab in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 21
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 18
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 97% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 85% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.62 / 90 | 52% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.71 / 90 | 30% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 27% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Ricardo Mathias is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ricardo Mathias's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq prediction
Al Ettifaq should have more of the ball; Al Shabab like to take players on; Al Ettifaq press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.87 for Al Shabab and 1.26 for Al Ettifaq - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 61%. Al Shabab have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Shabab 2-1 Al Ettifaq
Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Shabab unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.13 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq: questions and answers
When is Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 14.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq played?
At Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh), Riyadh, Al Shabab's home ground.
Who will win Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Al Shabab are the favourites: Al Shabab 51%, draw 24%, Al Ettifaq 25%. Our prediction is Al Shabab 2-1 Al Ettifaq.
Who is the player to watch in Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Ricardo Mathias of Al Shabab: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 21 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Shabab vs Al Ettifaq?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.