Al Hazm vs Al Nassr Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium) (Ar-Rass (Rass)), Rass · updated 2026-10-25
Al Hazm welcome Al Nassr to Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium) (Ar-Rass (Rass)) in Rass in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Al Hazm have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 18% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Al Nassr have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Nassr are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 22% and Al Hazm at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Hazm 0.87, Al Nassr 1.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Al Hazm: form and key numbers
In style Al Hazm are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Al Nassr: form and key numbers
In style Al Nassr keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 0.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.6).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr: season averages side by side
| Al Hazm | Per match this season | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 2.11 | xG conceded | 0.75 |
| 9.6 | Shots | 15.9 |
| 3.5 | On target | 6.2 |
| 44.4 | Possession % | 55.6 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Al Hazm
- Amir Sayoud AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 31 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 15% of his position)
- Ibrahim Zaied GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 25 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 52% of his position)
Al Nassr
- Ângelo RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 19 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 28% of his position)
- Samú Costa DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 18 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Félix
João Félix, 26 · Al Nassr · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 40
João Félix, 26, plays as a second striker for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in assists and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 40
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 36
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Assists | 0.47 / 90 | 84% |
| Key passes | 3.28 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 72% |
| Shots | 3.98 / 90 | 66% |
| Fouls won | 2.23 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Provider.
- What João Félix is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Félix's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr prediction
Al Nassr should have more of the ball, with Al Hazm likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Al Hazm like to take players on; Al Nassr work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 0.87 for Al Hazm and 1.96 for Al Nassr - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 50%. Al Nassr have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Al Hazm 1-2 Al Nassr
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Nassr to win 62% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.83 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr: questions and answers
When is Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13.
Where is Al Hazm vs Al Nassr played?
At Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium) (Ar-Rass (Rass)), Rass, Al Hazm's home ground.
Who will win Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
Al Nassr are the favourites: Al Hazm 15%, draw 22%, Al Nassr 62%. Our prediction is Al Hazm 1-2 Al Nassr.
Who is the player to watch in Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
João Félix of Al Nassr: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 40 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.