Al Hilal vs Al Fateh Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12
Saudi Pro League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Kingdom Arena · updated 2026-10-25
Al Hilal welcome Al Fateh to Kingdom Arena in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Al Hilal have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 90% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 44% win rate. Al Fateh have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 9% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Hilal are clear favourites at 88%, with the draw at 8% and Al Fateh at 4%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Hilal 3.71, Al Fateh 0.80.
- Over 2.5 goals: 83% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 4–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Al Hilal: form and key numbers
In style Al Hilal keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 3.10 a match created, 1.02 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 19.6 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Al Fateh: form and key numbers
In style Al Fateh are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 2.03 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh: season averages side by side
| Al Hilal | Per match this season | Al Fateh |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 11 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 3.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 1.02 | xG conceded | 2.03 |
| 19.6 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 7.0 | On target | 4.5 |
| 55.8 | Possession % | 44.1 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 55% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 7.07 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Players to watch
Al Hilal
- Yassine Bounou GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 24 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Ollie Watkins CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 24 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 19% of his position)
Al Fateh
- Mourad Batna RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 23 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 14% of his position)
- Zaydou Youssouf CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 16 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Crysencio Summerville
Crysencio Summerville, 24 · Al Hilal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 33
Crysencio Summerville, 24, plays as a winger for Al Hilal in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in expected goals and big chances created. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 33
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 30
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 30
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.50 / 90 | 78% |
| Big chances created | 0.71 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 57% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.22 / 90 | 56% |
| Shots | 3.67 / 90 | 41% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★½ Inside forward Winger
- What Crysencio Summerville is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Crysencio Summerville's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh prediction
Al Hilal should have more of the ball, with Al Fateh likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Al Hilal work the ball wide and cross; Al Fateh like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.5 goals - 3.71 for Al Hilal and 0.80 for Al Fateh - with over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 54%. Al Hilal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Hilal 4-1 Al Fateh
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Hilal to win 88% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 66% by the model, 4.51 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh: questions and answers
When is Al Hilal vs Al Fateh?
Al Hilal vs Al Fateh is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Al Hilal vs Al Fateh played?
At Kingdom Arena, Al Hilal's home ground.
Who will win Al Hilal vs Al Fateh?
Al Hilal are the favourites: Al Hilal 88%, draw 8%, Al Fateh 4%. Our prediction is Al Hilal 4-1 Al Fateh.
Who is the player to watch in Al Hilal vs Al Fateh?
Crysencio Summerville of Al Hilal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 33 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Hilal vs Al Fateh?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 83%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.