Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC Prediction and Betting Tips | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Alinma Stadium, Jeddah · updated 2026-10-25
Al Ittihad welcome NEOM SC to Alinma Stadium in Jeddah in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Al Ittihad have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 70% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 57% win rate. NEOM SC have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 55% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Ittihad are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and NEOM SC at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Ittihad 1.65, NEOM SC 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Al Ittihad: form and key numbers
In style Al Ittihad take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.10 a match created, 1.46 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
NEOM SC: form and key numbers
In style NEOM SC keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.30 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 27% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC: season averages side by side
| Al Ittihad | Per match this season | NEOM SC |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 1.46 | xG conceded | 1.30 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.4 | On target | 3.9 |
| 50.7 | Possession % | 53.5 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 70% | Both teams scored % | 27% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Al Ittihad
- Predrag Rajković GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 31 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
- George Ilenikhena CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 21 · Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter (top 28% of his position)
NEOM SC
- Saïd Benrahma LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 34 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
- Marcin Bulka GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 26 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 29% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Youssef En-Nesyri
Youssef En-Nesyri, 29 · Al Ittihad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 22
Youssef En-Nesyri, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Al Ittihad in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 22
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 77% |
| Goals | 0.91 / 90 | 62% |
| Shots on target | 42% | 48% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 39% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.97 / 90 | 16% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- What Youssef En-Nesyri is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Youssef En-Nesyri's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC prediction
NEOM SC should have more of the ball; Al Ittihad like to take players on; NEOM SC go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.65 for Al Ittihad and 1.16 for NEOM SC - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 56%. Al Ittihad have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Ittihad 2-1 NEOM SC
Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Ittihad win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.81 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Abha vs Al Faisaly Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Al Khaleej vs Al Hazm Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadsiah Thursday 29 October 2026
- Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Thursday 29 October 2026
- Abha vs Al Ittihad Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Diraiyah FC vs NEOM SC Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Shabab vs Al Ahli Friday 30 October 2026
- Al Taawoun vs Al Ettifaq Saturday 31 October 2026
Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC: questions and answers
When is Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC?
Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13.
Where is Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC played?
At Alinma Stadium, Jeddah, Al Ittihad's home ground.
Who will win Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC?
Al Ittihad are the favourites: Al Ittihad 48%, draw 26%, NEOM SC 26%. Our prediction is Al Ittihad 2-1 NEOM SC.
Who is the player to watch in Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC?
Youssef En-Nesyri of Al Ittihad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 22 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.