Alaves vs Malaga CF Prediction and Betting Tips
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Alaves welcome Malaga CF to Estadio de Mendizorroza in Gasteiz in La Liga action on Saturday 24 October 2026.
Alaves have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Malaga CF have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Alaves are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 27% and Malaga CF at 22%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Alaves -0.75 at 2.11, Malaga CF at 1.80. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.09, under 1.79, which gives over 46%.
Alaves: form and key numbers
In style Alaves are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Malaga CF: form and key numbers
In style Malaga CF take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.87 a match created, 1.78 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 2.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Alaves vs Malaga CF: season averages side by side
| Alaves | Per match | Malaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 |
| 1.33 | xG conceded | 1.78 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 2.6 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 0.4 |
| 41.5 | Pressure share % | 40.4 |
| 19.4 | Tackles | 16.1 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Players to watch
Alaves
- Antonio Sivera GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Box defender (top 5% of his position)
- Lucas Boyé CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 54 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Malaga CF
- Alfonso Herrero GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 27% of his position)
- Pablo Martínez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez, 24 · Deportivo Alavés · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65
Ángel Pérez, 24, plays as a winger for Deportivo Alavés in La Liga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and dispossessed. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 61
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.98 / 90 | 98% |
| Dispossessed | 0.49 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.37 / 90 | 93% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.79 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Press-resistant, Crosser.
- What Ángel Pérez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ángel Pérez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Alaves vs Malaga CF prediction
Malaga CF should have more of the ball, with Alaves likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Alaves work the ball wide and cross; Malaga CF like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.65 for Alaves and 0.74 for Malaga CF - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 43%. Alaves have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Alaves 1-0 Malaga CF
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Alaves vs Malaga CF betting tips
- Tip 1: Alaves win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.39 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More La Liga previews
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander Sunday 18 October 2026
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves Sunday 18 October 2026
- Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad Sunday 18 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla Sunday 18 October 2026
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Monday 19 October 2026
- Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Wednesday 21 October 2026
Alaves vs Malaga CF: questions and answers
When is Alaves vs Malaga CF?
Alaves vs Malaga CF is on Saturday 24 October 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Alaves vs Malaga CF played?
At Estadio de Mendizorroza, Gasteiz, Alaves's home ground.
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga CF?
Alaves are the favourites: Alaves 51%, draw 27%, Malaga CF 22%. Our prediction is Alaves 1-0 Malaga CF.
Who is the player to watch in Alaves vs Malaga CF?
Ángel Pérez of Deportivo Alavés: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Malaga CF?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
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