Atalanta vs Kairat Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-10-22
Atalanta welcome Kairat to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Atalanta have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Kairat have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atalanta are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 35% and Kairat at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.09, Kairat 0.51.
- Over 2.5 goals: 22% · both teams to score: 27%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (21%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
In style Atalanta are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Kairat: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
Atalanta vs Kairat: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Kairat |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 0.3 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.22 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 5.3 | On target | 5.2 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 55.7 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 17% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 0.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.52 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 8% of his position)
- Raoul Bellanova RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Creator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe, 23 · Atalanta · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Jonathan Rowe, 23, plays as a winger for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in fouls won and big chances created. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 57
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.20 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.58 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 75% |
| Shots | 2.62 / 90 | 68% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Big-chance creator.
- What Jonathan Rowe is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jonathan Rowe's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Kairat prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 1.6 goals - 1.09 for Atalanta and 0.51 for Kairat - with over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams scoring at 27%. Atalanta have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-0 Kairat
Atalanta vs Kairat betting tips
- Tip 1: Atalanta win or draw (double chance) 83% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 78% by the model, 1.60 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 73% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Kairat vs Panathinaikos Thursday 22 October 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Hearts Thursday 22 October 2026
- Pafos FC vs Riga Thursday 22 October 2026
- Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 22 October 2026
- Getafe vs Lugano Thursday 22 October 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann Thursday 22 October 2026
- Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion Thursday 22 October 2026
- Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Thursday 22 October 2026
Atalanta vs Kairat: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Kairat?
Atalanta vs Kairat is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Atalanta vs Kairat played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat?
Atalanta are the favourites: Atalanta 49%, draw 35%, Kairat 17%. Our prediction is Atalanta 1-0 Kairat.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Kairat?
Jonathan Rowe of Atalanta: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Kairat?
Moneyball's model expects about 1.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 22%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.