Udinese vs Lecce: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 10:30 UTC · Dacia Arena, Udine · updated 2026-10-09
Udinese host Lecce in Serie A on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Dacia Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Udinese favourites at 52%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Udinese 1.94, Lecce 1.30.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Mërgim Vojvoda
Mërgim Vojvoda, 31 · Udinese · RB · Attacking full-back
Moneyball Scout picks Mërgim Vojvoda as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 57, defensive 28).
- Key passes: 1.68 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of full-backs
- Expected assists (est.): 0.17 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of full-backs
- Passes: 49.51 per 90 minutes, better than 80% of full-backs
Lecce score 1.0 goals a match this season from 0.99 expected: stopping them runs through Mërgim Vojvoda.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Udinese | Per match this season | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.30 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 8.4 |
| 4.8 | On target | 3.4 |
| 45.8 | Possession % | 38.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Udinese
- Jurgen Ekkelenkamp forward · rating 7.26 · 5 apps
- Hassane Kamara midfielder · rating 7.20 · 5 apps
- Maduka Okoye goalkeeper · rating 7.10 · 5 apps
Lecce
- Wladimiro Falcone goalkeeper · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
- Lassana Coulibaly forward · rating 6.98 · 5 apps
- Tiago Gabriel defender · rating 6.97 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.