Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena MRV · updated 2026-10-25
Atlético Mineiro welcome Cruzeiro to Arena MRV in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Atlético Mineiro have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 45% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 71% win rate. Cruzeiro have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 16 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético Mineiro are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Cruzeiro at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético Mineiro 1.69, Cruzeiro 1.23.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atlético Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Cruzeiro: form and key numbers
In style Cruzeiro keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.6).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 69% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro: season averages side by side
| Atlético Mineiro | Per match this season | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.62 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 14.9 |
| 4.9 | On target | 5.3 |
| 49.2 | Possession % | 55.4 |
| 26% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 48% | Both teams scored % | 69% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Atlético Mineiro
- Tomás Cuello LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 24% of his position)
- Alexsander DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Cruzeiro
- João Marcelo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Blocks shots, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
- Gabriel Rojas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Creator (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira, 30 · Cruzeiro · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 63
Matheus Pereira, 30, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- RW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.74 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.48 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.34 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 76% |
| Shots | 2.85 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Matheus Pereira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matheus Pereira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro prediction
Cruzeiro should have more of the ball; Atlético Mineiro go long and direct; Cruzeiro work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.69 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.23 for Cruzeiro - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 58%. Atlético Mineiro have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Cruzeiro
Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro betting tips
- Tip 1: Atlético Mineiro win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.91 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro: questions and answers
When is Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro played?
At Arena MRV, Atlético Mineiro's home ground.
Who will win Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Atlético Mineiro are the favourites: Atlético Mineiro 47%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 27%. Our prediction is Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Cruzeiro.
Who is the player to watch in Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Matheus Pereira of Cruzeiro: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.