Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos · updated 2026-10-25
Santos welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Santos have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 50% win rate. Palmeiras have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Palmeiras are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 28% and Santos at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Santos 1.08, Palmeiras 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Santos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.16 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Palmeiras: form and key numbers
In style Palmeiras press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.0).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 47% of matches (53% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Santos vs Palmeiras: season averages side by side
| Santos | Per match this season | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 1.16 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.2 |
| 49.9 | Possession % | 52.2 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 47% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Santos
- Benjamín Rollheiser RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 71 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Rodinei RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Hard to dribble past, Dribbler (top 8% of his position)
Palmeiras
- Emiliano Martínez DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Vitor Roque CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 54 · Duel winner, High shot volume (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Neymar
Neymar, 34 · Santos · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 62
Neymar, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Santos in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and expected goals. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 59
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 4.49 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 3.76 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 2.50 / 90 | 69% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Neymar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Santos vs Palmeiras prediction
Palmeiras should have more of the ball; Palmeiras like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.08 for Santos and 1.41 for Palmeiras - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 51%. Palmeiras have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Santos 0-2 Palmeiras
Santos vs Palmeiras betting tips
- Tip 1: Palmeiras win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.49 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 15.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Santos vs Palmeiras: questions and answers
When is Santos vs Palmeiras?
Santos vs Palmeiras is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Santos vs Palmeiras played?
At Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, Santos's home ground.
Who will win Santos vs Palmeiras?
Palmeiras are the favourites: Santos 28%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 44%. Our prediction is Santos 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who is the player to watch in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Neymar of Santos: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.