Bragantino vs Chapecoense Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Bragança Paulista · updated 2026-10-25
Bragantino welcome Chapecoense to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Bragantino have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 34% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 64% win rate. Chapecoense have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bragantino are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 22% and Chapecoense at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bragantino 2.02, Chapecoense 1.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bragantino: form and key numbers
In style Bragantino play long and direct, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.9).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Chapecoense: form and key numbers
In style Chapecoense are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Bragantino vs Chapecoense: season averages side by side
| Bragantino | Per match this season | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.81 | xG conceded | 1.75 |
| 16.8 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.3 | On target | 3.5 |
| 49.6 | Possession % | 42.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 6% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Bragantino
- Ryan Augusto Tavares da Silva RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 4% of his position)
- Tiago Volpi GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 65 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 12% of his position)
Chapecoense
- Rafael Santos GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Bruno Pacheco LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Henry Mosquera
Henry Mosquera, 24 · Bragantino · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 65
Henry Mosquera, 24, plays as a winger for Bragantino in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 65
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 5.72 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 2.66 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 85% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.09 / 90 | 77% |
| Shots | 2.86 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Henry Mosquera is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Henry Mosquera's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bragantino vs Chapecoense prediction
Bragantino should have more of the ball, with Chapecoense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.02 for Bragantino and 1.11 for Chapecoense - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 59%. Bragantino have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bragantino 2-1 Chapecoense
Bragantino vs Chapecoense betting tips
- Tip 1: Bragantino to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.14 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 12.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Bragantino vs Chapecoense: questions and answers
When is Bragantino vs Chapecoense?
Bragantino vs Chapecoense is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Bragantino vs Chapecoense played?
At Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Bragança Paulista, Bragantino's home ground.
Who will win Bragantino vs Chapecoense?
Bragantino are the favourites: Bragantino 58%, draw 22%, Chapecoense 20%. Our prediction is Bragantino 2-1 Chapecoense.
Who is the player to watch in Bragantino vs Chapecoense?
Henry Mosquera of Bragantino: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bragantino vs Chapecoense?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.