Fluminense vs Internacional Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-10-25
Fluminense welcome Internacional to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Fluminense have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 16 matches, with a 79% win rate. Internacional have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 16 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fluminense are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and Internacional at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fluminense 1.63, Internacional 1.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Fluminense: form and key numbers
In style Fluminense keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.38 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.4).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 58.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 72% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Internacional: form and key numbers
In style Internacional play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.9).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Fluminense vs Internacional: season averages side by side
| Fluminense | Per match this season | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.4 |
| 58.6 | Possession % | 46.6 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 72% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Fluminense
- Igor Rabello CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 8% of his position)
- Jefferson Savarino AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, High shot volume (top 10% of his position)
Internacional
- Bruno Gomes RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Matheus Bahia LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Creator, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta, 32 · Fluminense · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 66
Luciano Acosta, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Fluminense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 66
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 49
- LW · Winger Competent, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.07 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.90 / 90 | 85% |
| Big chances created | 0.59 / 90 | 85% |
| Dispossessed | 0.89 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Luciano Acosta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luciano Acosta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fluminense vs Internacional prediction
Fluminense should have more of the ball, with Internacional likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Fluminense like to take players on; Internacional go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.63 for Fluminense and 1.14 for Internacional - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 55%. Fluminense have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fluminense 2-1 Internacional
Fluminense vs Internacional betting tips
- Tip 1: Fluminense win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.77 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Fluminense vs Internacional: questions and answers
When is Fluminense vs Internacional?
Fluminense vs Internacional is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Fluminense vs Internacional played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Fluminense's home ground.
Who will win Fluminense vs Internacional?
Fluminense are the favourites: Fluminense 48%, draw 26%, Internacional 26%. Our prediction is Fluminense 2-1 Internacional.
Who is the player to watch in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Luciano Acosta of Fluminense: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.