Atlanta United vs Toronto Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta · updated 2026-10-25
Atlanta United welcome Toronto to Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta in MLS action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Atlanta United have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 16 matches, with a 50% win rate. Toronto have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlanta United are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 25% and Toronto at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlanta United 1.74, Toronto 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atlanta United: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.3).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Toronto: form and key numbers
In style Toronto are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 77% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Atlanta United vs Toronto: season averages side by side
| Atlanta United | Per match this season | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 1.57 | xG conceded | 1.85 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.0 | On target | 4.5 |
| 50.8 | Possession % | 44.9 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 77% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Atlanta United
- Miguel Almirón RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 43 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 22% of his position)
- Steven Alzate CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 36 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 20% of his position)
Toronto
- Raheem Edwards LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Matheus Pereira LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 31 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello, 27 · Toronto · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 46
Alonso Coello, 27, plays as a central midfielder for Toronto in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and interceptions. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 46
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 90% |
| Long balls | 3.76 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 82% |
| Dispossessed | 0.48 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Reads the game, Long passer.
- What Alonso Coello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alonso Coello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlanta United vs Toronto prediction
Atlanta United should have more of the ball, with Toronto likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Toronto work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.74 for Atlanta United and 1.34 for Toronto - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 61%. Atlanta United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atlanta United 2-1 Toronto
Atlanta United vs Toronto betting tips
- Tip 1: Atlanta United win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.08 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More MLS previews
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- Charlotte vs CF Montréal Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Toronto vs DC United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Thursday 29 October 2026
- Dallas vs Columbus Crew Thursday 29 October 2026
Atlanta United vs Toronto: questions and answers
When is Atlanta United vs Toronto?
Atlanta United vs Toronto is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Atlanta United vs Toronto played?
At Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, Atlanta United's home ground.
Who will win Atlanta United vs Toronto?
Atlanta United are the favourites: Atlanta United 46%, draw 25%, Toronto 29%. Our prediction is Atlanta United 2-1 Toronto.
Who is the player to watch in Atlanta United vs Toronto?
Alonso Coello of Toronto: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlanta United vs Toronto?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.