Toronto vs DC United Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Toronto Stadium, Toronto · updated 2026-10-25
Toronto welcome DC United to Toronto Stadium in Toronto in MLS action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Toronto have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 16 matches, with a 63% win rate. DC United have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 23% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Toronto are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 24% and DC United at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Toronto 1.81, DC United 1.44.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Toronto: form and key numbers
In style Toronto are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 77% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
DC United: form and key numbers
In style DC United are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.2).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Toronto vs DC United: season averages side by side
| Toronto | Per match this season | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.85 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.3 |
| 44.9 | Possession % | 39.5 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 77% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Toronto
- Raheem Edwards LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Matheus Pereira LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 31 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 17% of his position)
DC United
- Nikola Marković CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
- Hosei Kijima CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 34 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello, 27 · Toronto · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 46
Alonso Coello, 27, plays as a central midfielder for Toronto in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and interceptions. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 46
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 90% |
| Long balls | 3.76 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 82% |
| Dispossessed | 0.48 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Reads the game, Long passer.
- What Alonso Coello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alonso Coello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Toronto vs DC United prediction
Toronto should have more of the ball; Toronto work the ball wide and cross; DC United go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.81 for Toronto and 1.44 for DC United - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 64%. Toronto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Toronto 2-1 DC United
Toronto vs DC United betting tips
- Tip 1: Toronto win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Toronto vs DC United: questions and answers
When is Toronto vs DC United?
Toronto vs DC United is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Toronto vs DC United played?
At Toronto Stadium, Toronto, Toronto's home ground.
Who will win Toronto vs DC United?
Toronto are the favourites: Toronto 46%, draw 24%, DC United 30%. Our prediction is Toronto 2-1 DC United.
Who is the player to watch in Toronto vs DC United?
Alonso Coello of Toronto: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Toronto vs DC United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.