Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 00:30 UTC · GEODIS Park · updated 2026-10-25
Nashville SC welcome Philadelphia Union to GEODIS Park in MLS action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Nashville SC have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 68% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 67% win rate. Philadelphia Union have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 46% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nashville SC are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 24% and Philadelphia Union at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nashville SC 1.86, Philadelphia Union 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Nashville SC: form and key numbers
In style Nashville SC keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +14.1).
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 48% of matches (47% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Philadelphia Union: form and key numbers
In style Philadelphia Union press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.05 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (17% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: season averages side by side
| Nashville SC | Per match this season | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.05 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 5.3 | On target | 5.4 |
| 53.9 | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 48% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Nashville SC
- Sam Surridge CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 43 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 2% of his position)
- Cristian Espinoza RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 42 · Crosser, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Philadelphia Union
- Milan Iloski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 40 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
- Kai Wagner LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 36 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cavan Sullivan
Cavan Sullivan, 17 · Philadelphia Union · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 44
Cavan Sullivan, 17, plays as a wide midfielder for Philadelphia Union in the MLS. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected goals. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 44
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.63 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.34 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.31 / 90 | 71% |
| Dispossessed | 0.95 / 90 | 21% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Cavan Sullivan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Cavan Sullivan's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union prediction
Nashville SC should have more of the ball, with Philadelphia Union likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Nashville SC go long and direct; Philadelphia Union are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.86 for Nashville SC and 1.17 for Philadelphia Union - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 59%. Nashville SC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Nashville SC 2-1 Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union betting tips
- Tip 1: Nashville SC win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.04 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: questions and answers
When is Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union played?
At GEODIS Park, Nashville SC's home ground.
Who will win Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Nashville SC are the favourites: Nashville SC 53%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union 23%. Our prediction is Nashville SC 2-1 Philadelphia Union.
Who is the player to watch in Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia Union: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
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