Dallas vs Columbus Crew Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Toyota Stadium, Frisco · updated 2026-10-25
Dallas welcome Columbus Crew to Toyota Stadium in Frisco in MLS action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Dallas have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 48% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 53% win rate. Columbus Crew have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 15 matches, with a 27% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Dallas are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25% and Columbus Crew at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Dallas 1.74, Columbus Crew 1.38.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Dallas: form and key numbers
In style Dallas are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.56 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: +9.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Columbus Crew: form and key numbers
In style Columbus Crew keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Dallas vs Columbus Crew: season averages side by side
| Dallas | Per match this season | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.56 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.64 | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 12.7 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.6 |
| 42.6 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 26% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 61% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Dallas
- Santiago Moreno RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Sam Sarver RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Columbus Crew
- Dylan Chambost CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 50 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 6% of his position)
- Santiago Rodríguez AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 36 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Petar Musa
Petar Musa, 28 · Dallas · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 51
Petar Musa, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Dallas in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 51
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 45
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.78 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots on target | 52% | 82% |
| Goals | 0.76 / 90 | 70% |
| Shots | 3.99 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter.
- What Petar Musa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Petar Musa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Dallas vs Columbus Crew prediction
Columbus Crew should have more of the ball, with Dallas likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Dallas go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.74 for Dallas and 1.38 for Columbus Crew - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 62%. Dallas have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Dallas 2-1 Columbus Crew
Dallas vs Columbus Crew betting tips
- Tip 1: Dallas win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.13 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Dallas vs Columbus Crew: questions and answers
When is Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
Dallas vs Columbus Crew is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Dallas vs Columbus Crew played?
At Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Dallas's home ground.
Who will win Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
Dallas are the favourites: Dallas 45%, draw 25%, Columbus Crew 30%. Our prediction is Dallas 2-1 Columbus Crew.
Who is the player to watch in Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
Petar Musa of Dallas: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.