New England vs New York RB Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Boston Stadium, Foxborough · updated 2026-10-25
New England welcome New York RB to Boston Stadium in Foxborough in MLS action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
New England have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 55% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 59% win rate. New York RB have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 45% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, New England are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and New York RB at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: New England 1.93, New York RB 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
New England: form and key numbers
In style New England press high.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
New York RB: form and key numbers
In style New York RB take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -11.4).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
New England vs New York RB: season averages side by side
| New England | Per match this season | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 12.2 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.7 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 52.1 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 16% |
| 61% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
New England
- Jack Harrison LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 50 · Crosser, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Joshua Wynder CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 38 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 7% of his position)
New York RB
- Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 42 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Accurate shooter (top 5% of his position)
- Julián Bazán CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Carles Gil
Carles Gil, 33 · New England · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 42
Carles Gil, 33, plays as an attacking midfielder for New England in the MLS. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and through balls. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 42
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 42
- RW · Winger Competent, 24
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 94% |
| Through balls | 0.23 / 90 | 92% |
| Fouls won | 2.40 / 90 | 81% |
| Key passes | 2.89 / 90 | 63% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Through-ball threat, Draws fouls.
- What Carles Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Carles Gil's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New England vs New York RB prediction
New York RB should have more of the ball; New England press high to win the ball back; New York RB like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.93 for New England and 1.20 for New York RB - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 60%. New England have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: New England 2-1 New York RB
New England vs New York RB betting tips
- Tip 1: New England win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.13 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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New England vs New York RB: questions and answers
When is New England vs New York RB?
New England vs New York RB is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is New England vs New York RB played?
At Boston Stadium, Foxborough, New England's home ground.
Who will win New England vs New York RB?
New England are the favourites: New England 54%, draw 23%, New York RB 23%. Our prediction is New England 2-1 New York RB.
Who is the player to watch in New England vs New York RB?
Carles Gil of New England: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New England vs New York RB?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.