Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Monday 26 October 2026 · 01:00 UTC · BMO Stadium, Los Angeles · updated 2026-10-25
Los Angeles FC welcome LA Galaxy to BMO Stadium in Los Angeles in MLS action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
Los Angeles FC have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 39% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 75% win rate. LA Galaxy have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Los Angeles FC are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and LA Galaxy at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.94, LA Galaxy 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Los Angeles FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (62% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
LA Galaxy: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: season averages side by side
| Los Angeles FC | Per match this season | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 2.08 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.7 | On target | 5.4 |
| 46.2 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 42% | Clean sheets % | 16% |
| 48% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Los Angeles FC
- Denis Bouanga LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 44 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 13% of his position)
- Heung-min Son LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 41 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 14% of his position)
LA Galaxy
- João Klauss CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 45 · Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher (top 8% of his position)
- Gabriel Pec RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 43 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marco Reus
Marco Reus, 37 · LA Galaxy · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 50
Marco Reus, 37, plays as an attacking midfielder for LA Galaxy in the MLS. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 50
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 47
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 43
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.63 / 90 | 90% |
| Big chances created | 0.77 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 81% |
| Through balls | 0.14 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Marco Reus is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marco Reus's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy prediction
LA Galaxy should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.94 for Los Angeles FC and 1.09 for LA Galaxy - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 57%. Los Angeles FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Los Angeles FC 2-1 LA Galaxy
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy betting tips
- Tip 1: Los Angeles FC to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.03 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 10.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: questions and answers
When is Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 01:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy played?
At BMO Stadium, Los Angeles, Los Angeles FC's home ground.
Who will win Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
Los Angeles FC are the favourites: Los Angeles FC 56%, draw 23%, LA Galaxy 20%. Our prediction is Los Angeles FC 2-1 LA Galaxy.
Who is the player to watch in Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
Marco Reus of LA Galaxy: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.