Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-10-25
Vasco da Gama welcome Flamengo to Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Vasco da Gama have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 80% win rate. Flamengo have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 65% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 16 matches, with a 45% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Flamengo are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 27% and Vasco da Gama at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.15, Flamengo 1.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Vasco da Gama: form and key numbers
In style Vasco da Gama keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -15.1).
- Shots: 17.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo: season averages side by side
| Vasco da Gama | Per match this season | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 17.9 | Shots | 15.8 |
| 5.4 | On target | 5.7 |
| 54.6 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 45% |
| 61% | Both teams scored % | 48% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
Vasco da Gama
- Cuiabano LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Santiago Sosa DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Flamengo
- Gonzalo Plata RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 62 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 17% of his position)
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 73
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 73
- RW · Winger Natural, 73
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.26 / 90 | 92% |
| Big chances created | 0.77 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.73 / 90 | 85% |
| Fouls won | 2.05 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball; Vasco da Gama are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Flamengo press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.15 for Vasco da Gama and 1.55 for Flamengo - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 54%. Flamengo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Vasco da Gama 1-2 Flamengo
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo betting tips
- Tip 1: Flamengo win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.70 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 13.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo: questions and answers
When is Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo played?
At Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, Rio de Janeiro, Vasco da Gama's home ground.
Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?
Flamengo are the favourites: Vasco da Gama 27%, draw 27%, Flamengo 46%. Our prediction is Vasco da Gama 1-2 Flamengo.
Who is the player to watch in Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.