Austin vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Q2 Stadium · updated 2026-10-25
Austin welcome Portland Timbers to Q2 Stadium in MLS action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Austin have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Portland Timbers have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Portland Timbers are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25% and Austin at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Austin 1.34, Portland Timbers 1.70.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Austin: form and key numbers
In style Austin play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.1).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Portland Timbers: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Austin vs Portland Timbers: season averages side by side
| Austin | Per match this season | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.51 |
| 1.96 | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.7 |
| 49.1 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 6% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Austin
- Brad Stuver GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 43 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 39% of his position)
- Žan Kolmanič LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 34 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
Portland Timbers
- José Luis Caicedo Barrera DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 43 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
- Kevin Kelsy CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 41 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kristoffer Velde
Kristoffer Velde, 27 · Portland Timbers · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 46
Kristoffer Velde, 27, plays as a winger for Portland Timbers in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 46
- RW · Winger Natural, 46
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.07 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.50 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.49 / 90 | 72% |
| Big chances created | 0.42 / 90 | 62% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.26 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Crosser.
- What Kristoffer Velde is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kristoffer Velde's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Austin vs Portland Timbers prediction
Portland Timbers should have more of the ball; Austin go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.34 for Austin and 1.70 for Portland Timbers - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 61%. Portland Timbers have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Austin 1-2 Portland Timbers
Austin vs Portland Timbers betting tips
- Tip 1: Portland Timbers win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Austin vs Portland Timbers: questions and answers
When is Austin vs Portland Timbers?
Austin vs Portland Timbers is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Austin vs Portland Timbers played?
At Q2 Stadium, Austin's home ground.
Who will win Austin vs Portland Timbers?
Portland Timbers are the favourites: Austin 30%, draw 25%, Portland Timbers 45%. Our prediction is Austin 1-2 Portland Timbers.
Who is the player to watch in Austin vs Portland Timbers?
Kristoffer Velde of Portland Timbers: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Austin vs Portland Timbers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.