Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · TQL Stadium · updated 2026-10-25
Cincinnati welcome Philadelphia Union to TQL Stadium in MLS action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Cincinnati have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 35% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 15 matches, with a 73% win rate. Philadelphia Union have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 46% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Philadelphia Union are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 21% and Cincinnati at 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cincinnati 1.89, Philadelphia Union 2.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 75%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Cincinnati: form and key numbers
In style Cincinnati press high, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.81 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.8).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Philadelphia Union: form and key numbers
In style Philadelphia Union press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.05 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (17% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union: season averages side by side
| Cincinnati | Per match this season | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.05 |
| 1.61 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 5.9 | On target | 5.4 |
| 51.1 | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 74% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Cincinnati
- Tyrell Malacia LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 42 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
- Kévin Denkey CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 36 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Philadelphia Union
- Cavan Sullivan RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 44 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
- Milan Iloski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 40 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Evander
Evander, 28 · Cincinnati · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 66
Evander, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cincinnati in the MLS. Strongest for his role in through balls and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 66
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.32 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 3.51 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.79 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Evander is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union prediction
Cincinnati should have more of the ball; Cincinnati work the ball wide and cross; Philadelphia Union are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.89 for Cincinnati and 2.12 for Philadelphia Union - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 75%. Philadelphia Union have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Cincinnati 1-3 Philadelphia Union
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union betting tips
- Tip 1: Philadelphia Union win or draw (double chance) 65% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 57% by the model, 4.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 75% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 15.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More MLS previews
- Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy Monday 26 October 2026
- Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New York City vs Atlanta United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New England vs New York RB Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Charlotte vs CF Montréal Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Toronto vs DC United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Thursday 29 October 2026
- Dallas vs Columbus Crew Thursday 29 October 2026
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union: questions and answers
When is Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union played?
At TQL Stadium, Cincinnati's home ground.
Who will win Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union are the favourites: Cincinnati 35%, draw 21%, Philadelphia Union 44%. Our prediction is Cincinnati 1-3 Philadelphia Union.
Who is the player to watch in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Evander of Cincinnati: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.