Corinthians vs Mirassol Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Friday 30 October 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Arena Corinthians, São Paulo · updated 2026-10-25
Corinthians welcome Mirassol to Arena Corinthians in São Paulo in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Corinthians have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 63% win rate. Mirassol have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 28% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 22% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Corinthians are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 28% and Mirassol at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Corinthians 1.39, Mirassol 1.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Corinthians: form and key numbers
In style Corinthians keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 54.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 31% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Mirassol: form and key numbers
In style Mirassol cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.0).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 66% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Corinthians vs Mirassol: season averages side by side
| Corinthians | Per match this season | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 0.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.24 | xG conceded | 1.85 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 3.9 | On target | 4.5 |
| 54.1 | Possession % | 49.9 |
| 31% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 59% | Both teams scored % | 66% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Corinthians
- André Ramalho CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 19% of his position)
- Fabrizio Angileri LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 21% of his position)
Mirassol
- Gabriel CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 5% of his position)
- Nathan Fogaça CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Reinaldo
Reinaldo, 37 · Mirassol · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56
Reinaldo, 37, plays as a wing-back for Mirassol in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 56
- LB · Full-back Natural, 54
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 34
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.45 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.15 / 90 | 73% |
| Dribbled past | 0.65 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Reinaldo is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Corinthians vs Mirassol prediction
Corinthians should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.39 for Corinthians and 1.11 for Mirassol - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 51%. Corinthians have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Corinthians 2-0 Mirassol
Corinthians vs Mirassol betting tips
- Tip 1: Corinthians win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.50 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 13.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Corinthians vs Mirassol: questions and answers
When is Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Corinthians vs Mirassol is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Corinthians vs Mirassol played?
At Arena Corinthians, São Paulo, Corinthians's home ground.
Who will win Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Corinthians are the favourites: Corinthians 43%, draw 28%, Mirassol 29%. Our prediction is Corinthians 2-0 Mirassol.
Who is the player to watch in Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Reinaldo of Mirassol: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.