Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Friday 6 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte · updated 2026-10-25
Cruzeiro welcome Bahia to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Cruzeiro have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 16 matches, with a 56% win rate. Bahia have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 16 matches, with a 46% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Cruzeiro 41%, the draw 25%, Bahia 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.68, Bahia 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Cruzeiro: form and key numbers
In style Cruzeiro keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.6).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (71% at home).
- Both teams scored in 69% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Bahia: form and key numbers
In style Bahia keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.2).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 28% of matches (44% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia: season averages side by side
| Cruzeiro | Per match this season | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.45 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 5.3 | On target | 4.7 |
| 55.4 | Possession % | 53.7 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 28% |
| 69% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Cruzeiro
- João Marcelo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Blocks shots, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
- Gabriel Rojas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Creator (top 22% of his position)
Bahia
- Ronaldo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 9% of his position)
- Mateo Sanabria LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 60 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira, 30 · Cruzeiro · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 63
Matheus Pereira, 30, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- RW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.74 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.48 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.34 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 76% |
| Shots | 2.85 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Matheus Pereira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matheus Pereira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction
Cruzeiro should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.68 for Cruzeiro and 1.52 for Bahia - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia
Cruzeiro vs Bahia betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.20 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Cruzeiro vs Bahia: questions and answers
When is Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro vs Bahia is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Bahia played?
At Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Cruzeiro's home ground.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
It is close: Cruzeiro 41%, draw 25%, Bahia 34%. Our prediction is Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia.
Who is the player to watch in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Matheus Pereira of Cruzeiro: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.